Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby royc on Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:37 pm

New Gunner wrote:Had a dig into the annual reports. Some interesting observations:

Over 4 years:

Expenditure:
International & professional rugby +20% (+£4m)


Maybe we are looking at different pages? As far as I can see, Intl & Pro rugby has not gone up by £4m in the last 4 years at all, it only increased by £1.353m from 2013/14 to 2016/17?

Whatever, the big picture is that the new regime bumped up the money considerably by 40% over their first three years, up to 2013/14. Since then, it has flat-lined, at average increase of under 2% a year.

The CEO did tell us that already really. He said at the SGM 2 years ago that the SRU couldn't put more into the Pro teams without cutting other areas, hence quest for private investors.

I think the figures support my conclusion that the Edinburgh budget has hardly risen over the last 3 years. If it's in line with the overall spend, it's maybe up by £200k to £5m last season.

If you disagree with my calcs below, tell me where - I'm no maths genius! I have put in the reference page for each year's report.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby biffer on Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:51 pm

Statistics, Wonderful things. New Gunner is looking at four years' increases, whereas royc is looking at the increase over four seasons, which is three increases. The yearly increases from 2013/14 until 2016.17 are three increases, not four so it's actually 1.91% per year.

Look at it this way - if you want to find out the increase in one year, you need two years of numbers. If you want to look at four increases you need to look at five years of numbers. royc, you've been looking at four years of numbers and dividing by four instead of three.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby royc on Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:14 pm

Yes, it should be divided by 4 rather then 3, I was rushing. But minor difference between an increase of 1.91% a year and 1.43% a year over the last 3 'years' doesn't alter the big picture. Which is that the squad budget has very likely been flat-lining for the last 3 seasons and, unless the SRU took the brakes off this season, Cockerill has virtually the same budget as Solomons had.

Given the reported 25% inflation rate on player wages, it means the budget is in fact reducing in real terms. Which was my original point and which looks to be borne out.
Last edited by royc on Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby biffer on Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:23 pm

royc wrote:I did wonder about that while I was rushing! But minor difference between an increase of 1.91% a year rather than 1.43% a year over the last 3 years doesn't alter the big picture. Which is that the squad budget has very likely been flat-lining for the last 3 seasons and, unless the SRU took the brakes off this season, Cockerill has virtually the same budget as Solomons had.

Given the reported 25% inflation rate on player wages, it means the budget is in fact reducing in real terms.


I'm not certain I believe the whole 25% thing. It sounds like agent talk, trying to squeeze more out of clubs. The very top end probably has that level (you wouldn't get Hogg for £350k now) but half way down I doubt it's that much. And we were never shopping at the top end anyway.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby royc on Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:44 pm

biffer wrote:[

I'm not certain I believe the whole 25% thing. It sounds like agent talk, trying to squeeze more out of clubs. The very top end probably has that level (you wouldn't get Hogg for £350k now) but half way down I doubt it's that much. And we were never shopping at the top end anyway.


It was Frank Dodson who said that IIRC, which makes it more credible than agent talk. Even if wage inflation was a fifth of that, 5% (and stands to reason it would be a good bit higher), the Edinburgh budget would still be regressing if it's only growing at under 2% a year.

The point I'm driving at in all this is that it looks like Cockerill is being expected to do a good bit more with less, which is pretty unrealistic, no matter how good he is. Unless they gave him some extra bunce to beef up the squad this season, which we won't know until the Annual Report later this year, or for next season.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby BigD163 on Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:16 pm

royc wrote:
biffer wrote:[

I'm not certain I believe the whole 25% thing. It sounds like agent talk, trying to squeeze more out of clubs. The very top end probably has that level (you wouldn't get Hogg for £350k now) but half way down I doubt it's that much. And we were never shopping at the top end anyway.


It was Frank Dodson who said that IIRC, which makes it more credible than agent talk. Even if wage inflation was a fifth of that, 5% (and stands to reason it would be a good bit higher), the Edinburgh budget would still be regressing if it's only growing at under 2% a year.


That came directly from Dodson and is easily believable. 80k players now 100k, 200k players wanting 250k etc.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby New Gunner on Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:59 pm

royc wrote:
biffer wrote:[

I'm not certain I believe the whole 25% thing. It sounds like agent talk, trying to squeeze more out of clubs. The very top end probably has that level (you wouldn't get Hogg for £350k now) but half way down I doubt it's that much. And we were never shopping at the top end anyway.


It was Frank Dodson who said that IIRC, which makes it more credible than agent talk. Even if wage inflation was a fifth of that, 5% (and stands to reason it would be a good bit higher), the Edinburgh budget would still be regressing if it's only growing at under 2% a year.

The point I'm driving at in all this is that it looks like Cockerill is being expected to do a good bit more with less, which is pretty unrealistic, no matter how good he is. Unless they gave him some extra bunce to beef up the squad this season, which we won't know until the Annual Report later this year, or for next season.


Here's the quote from Mark Dodson: “We’re trying to cap our investment into the pro teams. At the moment you’ve got two per cent inflation in the domestic game and 25 per cent inflation in the professional game, there comes a point where you have to make difficult choices.”

Read more at: https://www.scotsman.com/sport/rugby-un ... n-1-426424

You have to remember that he's trying to make a point, to get the club's to vote to allow external investment. Over-egged? Almost certainly. Does he say 25% per annum? No. Is it implied? Probably. Will Finn Russell double his salary in one year? Yes, but the SRU wage bill won't because they don't play in that market. Will Dougie Fife be on 50% more than he was a couple of years ago when last at the club? Nothing like it.

I picked the 4 year comparison that Biffer correctly identified a) to cover a full World Cup revenue cycle, and b) to compare apples with apples i.e. Same number of Six Nations home games etc.

In that time, the total SRU wage bill for all staff has gone up by 20% , +£4.1m. My guess is that the pro player inflation makes up a big chunk of the £4m, and therefore far higher than the overall 20% - but over 4 years.

The international and pro team budget has also gone up by £4m, circa 20%. That covers all costs though, marketing, matchday, transport & accommodation will have been relatively static, so again the increase in playing budget could be a lot higher. We don't know. All in all, SRU expenditure is up £12m and debt falling fast - hats off to Dodson.

There's been a massive increase in domestic & performance rugby (not including club support) - part of this is for the academies, which have an impact on the pro team's (player pathway, McCallum, Crosbie et al) - but not included in the pro team numbers.

Stepping away from the (incomplete) data, the evidence is before us. Edinburgh and Glasgow are performing at a higher level in the league relative to the Irish and Welsh regions. More wins, more points. And that's in a league that is well represented with home ties in the QF of the Champions Cup, so it's not as though the quality of the league is falling. Indeed, 10 of the 14 are from countries that just finished in the top 3 of the 6N.

Is the quality of the Edinburgh squad higher this year than last? Yes - partly through coaching, but we are not diluting the quality. Next season, the consensus is that with Barclay, Scott, Socino, Hickey, van der Walt, we are likely enhancing the squad further with a couple more to come. Yes we lose Du Preez, Sam, Hardie, Burleigh but generally it looks like we are getting stronger relative to our peers.

Something's working.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby Weegie on Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:28 pm

Is it just me or are Cockerill's comments that they are supporting Dickinson so he can make the right choice 'whether he is playing again or not playing again' a wee bit ominous?
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby biffer on Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:51 pm

Weegie wrote:Is it just me or are Cockerill's comments that they are supporting Dickinson so he can make the right choice 'whether he is playing again or not playing again' a wee bit ominous?


I think it’s just honest.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby Weegie on Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:56 pm

biffer wrote:
Weegie wrote:Is it just me or are Cockerill's comments that they are supporting Dickinson so he can make the right choice 'whether he is playing again or not playing again' a wee bit ominous?


I think it’s just honest.


It can be both.

I meant ominous in the sense that it sounds like there is decent doubt of him ever coming back.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby biffer on Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:32 am

Weegie wrote:
biffer wrote:
Weegie wrote:Is it just me or are Cockerill's comments that they are supporting Dickinson so he can make the right choice 'whether he is playing again or not playing again' a wee bit ominous?


I think it’s just honest.


It can be both.

I meant ominous in the sense that it sounds like there is decent doubt of him ever coming back.


Yeah, but to be honest that’s true of any injured 34 year old I would think.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby New Gunner on Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:59 pm

Is it too soon to start talking about Duhan van der Merwe in the Visser bracket? Big, fast, great fend and a clear finisher's eye for the line. 7 tries in 13 appearances worthy of Mr Toot 'n' Salute in his prime?

The last 3 seasons' top Pro14 try scorers have been on 10-12. VdM has scored 5 in 10 appearances, a full season could have anything up to 24 matches, so he's not far off. 474 metres gained is pretty decent too.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby The Feral Goat on Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:50 pm

Rugby Inside Line linking us with Luke Hamilton again today with a move to ER to increase international opportunities.

Looks a quality player but would be odd to release CDP and Hardie to replace them with Barclay and then Hamilton cant imagine there is much £ saving to be made there for rebalance else where.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby Wottie on Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:28 pm

The Feral Goat wrote:Rugby Inside Line linking us with Luke Hamilton again today with a move to ER to increase international opportunities.

Looks a quality player but would be odd to release CDP and Hardie to replace them with Barclay and then Hamilton cant imagine there is much £ saving to be made there for rebalance else where.


Mmmm! feels odd not being excited about someone like Hamilton arriving but it just demonstrates the strength and depth we have in our back row. I think the way to accommodate him in the context of your point is to look at Mata as a lock that can play back row and run with the locks we have at present (which is possibly one light?). Still rather they spent the budget on Scrum Half and back three given it appears there is another prop coming.
Last edited by Wottie on Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Edinburgh Rugby Squad 2018/19

Postby GaryIPA on Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:47 pm

Suspect even more likely to mean Henry coming east. No extra cost to the sru just rebalancing the budget
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