disco wrote:Thought I'd run the possible permutations for Edinburgh in tomorrow's Heineken Cup draw. In terms of which 1st and 2nd seed you can get:
If Top 14 and Premiership runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Wasps
• Saracens + Racing
• Montpellier + Wasps
• Exeter + Racing
If Top 14 and PRO14 runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Exeter or Wasps or Newcastle
• Saracens + Racing
• Montpellier + Exeter or Wasps or Newcastle
If PRO14 and Premiership runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Wasps
• Saracens + Racing or Montpellier or Lyon
• Exeter + Racing or Montpellier or Lyon
There are 18 permutations in total. Most likely top seeds are Castres and Saracens (both 5/18 possibilities) then Montpellier and Exeter (both 4/18).
2nd seeds it's Finn Russell's Racing 92 and Wasps (5/18 each) with Newcastle, Exeter, Montpellier and Lyon 2/18 each.
From the 4th Tier it's not quite an open draw as Ulster cannot go into Leinster or Munster's pools and Cardiff Blues cannot go into Scarlets pool. That means there's a 1 in 3 chance Edinburgh get Ulster. 1 in 4 chance for Cardiff Blues. 1 in 5 for each of the other 4th seeds.
Cheers disco, good work as ever.
If we avoid Sarries I’ll be happy tbh. I’d also rather not have Ulster just because I can’t be arsed with all their pish. Looking forward to being part of it.
We only do the Heineken Cup (I’m getting a tshirt with that on it).