Champions Cup 18/19

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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby biffer on Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:15 pm

disco wrote:Thought I'd run the possible permutations for Edinburgh in tomorrow's Heineken Cup draw. In terms of which 1st and 2nd seed you can get:

If Top 14 and Premiership runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Wasps
• Saracens + Racing
• Montpellier + Wasps
• Exeter + Racing

If Top 14 and PRO14 runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Exeter or Wasps or Newcastle
• Saracens + Racing
• Montpellier + Exeter or Wasps or Newcastle

If PRO14 and Premiership runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Wasps
• Saracens + Racing or Montpellier or Lyon
• Exeter + Racing or Montpellier or Lyon

There are 18 permutations in total. Most likely top seeds are Castres and Saracens (both 5/18 possibilities) then Montpellier and Exeter (both 4/18).

2nd seeds it's Finn Russell's Racing 92 and Wasps (5/18 each) with Newcastle, Exeter, Montpellier and Lyon 2/18 each.

From the 4th Tier it's not quite an open draw as Ulster cannot go into Leinster or Munster's pools and Cardiff Blues cannot go into Scarlets pool. That means there's a 1 in 3 chance Edinburgh get Ulster. 1 in 4 chance for Cardiff Blues. 1 in 5 for each of the other 4th seeds.


Cheers disco, good work as ever.

If we avoid Sarries I’ll be happy tbh. I’d also rather not have Ulster just because I can’t be arsed with all their pish. Looking forward to being part of it.

We only do the Heineken Cup (I’m getting a tshirt with that on it).
Don't mention Rory Hutton. I did once but I think I got away with it.
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby disco on Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:33 pm

biffer wrote:
disco wrote:Thought I'd run the possible permutations for Edinburgh in tomorrow's Heineken Cup draw. In terms of which 1st and 2nd seed you can get:

If Top 14 and Premiership runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Wasps
• Saracens + Racing
• Montpellier + Wasps
• Exeter + Racing

If Top 14 and PRO14 runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Exeter or Wasps or Newcastle
• Saracens + Racing
• Montpellier + Exeter or Wasps or Newcastle

If PRO14 and Premiership runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Wasps
• Saracens + Racing or Montpellier or Lyon
• Exeter + Racing or Montpellier or Lyon

There are 18 permutations in total. Most likely top seeds are Castres and Saracens (both 5/18 possibilities) then Montpellier and Exeter (both 4/18).

2nd seeds it's Finn Russell's Racing 92 and Wasps (5/18 each) with Newcastle, Exeter, Montpellier and Lyon 2/18 each.

From the 4th Tier it's not quite an open draw as Ulster cannot go into Leinster or Munster's pools and Cardiff Blues cannot go into Scarlets pool. That means there's a 1 in 3 chance Edinburgh get Ulster. 1 in 4 chance for Cardiff Blues. 1 in 5 for each of the other 4th seeds.


Cheers disco, good work as ever.

If we avoid Sarries I’ll be happy tbh. I’d also rather not have Ulster just because I can’t be arsed with all their pish. Looking forward to being part of it.

We only do the Heineken Cup (I’m getting a tshirt with that on it).

Cheers. Exeter would be an interesting match up for you if you can get your first choice pack out. Add in Russell and Nakarawa coming to Murrayfield with Racing for a bit of box office and you could have a very interesting pool. Chuck in Cardiff Blues because you owe them for last season's Challenge Cup quarter!
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby biffer on Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:34 pm

I’d rather a sunny weekend in the south of France in early October :D
Don't mention Rory Hutton. I did once but I think I got away with it.
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby The Feral Goat on Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:45 pm

biffer wrote:we only do the Heineken Cup


:lol: :lol: possibly the elusive chant the fans were asking Cockers for as well.

No easy teams but really look forward to seeing how our pack do against some of the better teams in Europe.
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby biffer on Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:13 pm

disco wrote:Thought I'd run the possible permutations for Edinburgh in tomorrow's Heineken Cup draw. In terms of which 1st and 2nd seed you can get:

If Top 14 and Premiership runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Wasps
• Saracens + Racing
• Montpellier + Wasps
• Exeter + Racing

If Top 14 and PRO14 runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Exeter or Wasps or Newcastle
• Saracens + Racing
• Montpellier + Exeter or Wasps or Newcastle

If PRO14 and Premiership runners up are drawn in Tier 1:
• Castres + Wasps
• Saracens + Racing or Montpellier or Lyon
• Exeter + Racing or Montpellier or Lyon

There are 18 permutations in total. Most likely top seeds are Castres and Saracens (both 5/18 possibilities) then Montpellier and Exeter (both 4/18).

2nd seeds it's Finn Russell's Racing 92 and Wasps (5/18 each) with Newcastle, Exeter, Montpellier and Lyon 2/18 each.

From the 4th Tier it's not quite an open draw as Ulster cannot go into Leinster or Munster's pools and Cardiff Blues cannot go into Scarlets pool. That means there's a 1 in 3 chance Edinburgh get Ulster. 1 in 4 chance for Cardiff Blues. 1 in 5 for each of the other 4th seeds.


Quick question - I know you say there are 18 permutations but are they all equally likely? I’m having trouble getting my head round the probabilities. There’s a 1 in 3 chance of the different allocation of the second seeds, but after that there’s a different probability of drawing Exeter as tops seeds if Exeter and Scarlets are in the top tier (1 in 3 chance of getting Exeter) rather than Exeter and Montpellier (1 in 4 chance of Exeter) so the chances of getting Exeter are 1/3*1/3 + 1/3*1/4 which is 1/9 + 1/12 = 7/36, so slightly less than the probability you have. Same odds for Montpellier, and both Saracens and Castres will be 1/3*1/3 + 1/3*1/3 + 1/3*1/4 so 1/9 + 1/9 + 1/12 = 11/36, slightly higher than 5 in 18. Can’t be bothered working out the second pot as it’s going to get even more complex.
Don't mention Rory Hutton. I did once but I think I got away with it.
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby biffer on Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:28 pm

Right, not as hard as I thought. Probabilities before anything is drawn are

30.5% Saracens as top seed
30.5% Castres
19.5% Exeter
19.5% Montpellier

35.2% Racing as second seed
35.2% Wasps
7.4% Exeter
7.4% Newcastle
7.4% Montpellier
7.4% Lyon

Obviously the probabilities change massively after the first seeds are decided and then again after the first seed is drawn.
Don't mention Rory Hutton. I did once but I think I got away with it.
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby adi1314 on Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:40 am

Draw is at 2.20pm today.
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby Wottie on Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:53 am

Dear Santa, please can we have:

Montpelier, Newcastle, Edinburgh & Ulster, or
Exeter, (Montpelier or Lyon), Edinburgh, Ulster

Some great away trips there and a chance of coming out of the group maybe? Thanks to disco (and biffer) for the analysis on this. Great work guys! A 14.15 lunch today it is then!
Bill Mata. The second coming?
"Commitment should not be commended, it should be expected really!"
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby adi1314 on Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:07 pm

Exeter pack versus our pack would be a classic!
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby Wottie on Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:53 pm

adi1314 wrote:Exeter pack versus our pack would be a classic!


.... as indeed it would against the Montpelier pack (and Vern!).
Bill Mata. The second coming?
"Commitment should not be commended, it should be expected really!"
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby biffer on Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:00 pm

Wottie wrote:Dear Santa, please can we have:

Montpelier, Newcastle, Edinburgh & Ulster, or
Exeter, (Montpelier or Lyon), Edinburgh, Ulster

Some great away trips there and a chance of coming out of the group maybe? Thanks to disco (and biffer) for the analysis on this. Great work guys! A 14.15 lunch today it is then!


I'd rather not have Ulster. I just don't like them. Montpellier, Exeter, Lyon, Newcastle, absolutely.

Watch us get Sarries, Racing and Toulon.
Don't mention Rory Hutton. I did once but I think I got away with it.
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby Wottie on Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:15 pm

biffer wrote:I'd rather not have Ulster. I just don't like them. Montpellier, Exeter, Lyon, Newcastle, absolutely.

Watch us get Sarries, Racing and Toulon.


We went over for the Ulster game this season. Fantastic trip. I can only imagine what it would be like on a European game. They are also in a complete mess just now and think they would be great to get in our group. Sarries, Racing and Toulon would redefine "group of death" (for us anyway!).
Bill Mata. The second coming?
"Commitment should not be commended, it should be expected really!"
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby disco on Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:27 pm

biffer wrote:Right, not as hard as I thought. Probabilities before anything is drawn are

30.5% Saracens as top seed
30.5% Castres
19.5% Exeter
19.5% Montpellier

35.2% Racing as second seed
35.2% Wasps
7.4% Exeter
7.4% Newcastle
7.4% Montpellier
7.4% Lyon

Obviously the probabilities change massively after the first seeds are decided and then again after the first seed is drawn.

Good work! Yes I'd only done the permutations rather than the probabilities but your percentages make it pretty clear.
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby biffer on Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:43 pm

disco wrote:
biffer wrote:Right, not as hard as I thought. Probabilities before anything is drawn are

30.5% Saracens as top seed
30.5% Castres
19.5% Exeter
19.5% Montpellier

35.2% Racing as second seed
35.2% Wasps
7.4% Exeter
7.4% Newcastle
7.4% Montpellier
7.4% Lyon

Obviously the probabilities change massively after the first seeds are decided and then again after the first seed is drawn.

Good work! Yes I'd only done the permutations rather than the probabilities but your percentages make it pretty clear.


Aw shucks. Praise from the king of the stats 8)
Don't mention Rory Hutton. I did once but I think I got away with it.
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Re: Champions Cup 18/19

Postby Wottie on Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:13 pm

Clermont in the diddy cup. That's a shocker!!
Bill Mata. The second coming?
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