2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

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2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby doedin on Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:17 pm

Well 2016 was a pretty awful year for all sorts of reasons and Embra must be glad to see the back of it! Finishing a lowly 9th in the Pro12, the loss of some of our best players, poor squad recruitment, even poorer start to the new season, falling crowds, sacking the manager (although this is arguably the one bright spot in 2016) and the loss through injury of our one main strength namely our 1st and 2nd choice front rows. Surely 2017 can’t be any worse? Are there any bright lights on the horizon?

Myreside - hopefully this can be developed into a proper home for Embra rugby and create a bit of atmosphere missing from playing in the morgue. It surely can’t be any worse and hopefully will help build a rugby club feeling which has been sadly missing.

Funding - the SRU have gone quiet on this having launched the look out for external funding a few months ago. Hopefully there is work going on in the background. I thought the recent sale of Skyscanner might have brought some news! However a few £m extra funding a year might prove important if we are to rebuild the squad.

Manager - will Hodge get the gig? To be honest I'm not sure who else would want it at the moment. Lots of names being kicked about but for many mentioned there is no reason why they would want to come to a basket case like Embra at the moment. Perhaps the SRU will pull a big name out of the bag? I quite fancy Mike Blair as an outside bet, a real thinker and more like Townsend whom he has been studying under. Its a big decision for the SRU and JP.

Squad - we will inevitably lose another few of our better players (Nel, Watson, GC, Hardie) and I dont blame any of them for moving on if it means more money, playing at a proper rugby club and a better chance of winning something. Between losing a few of our better guys and getting rid of the deadwood the new manager will have a big job finding and persuading new guys to come to the club. I suspect he will need to recruit 10+ players to get the squad competitive again, hopefully spending some of the new investment coming in! In reality we will no doubt end up with the mix of promising young guys, a few stalwarts and a selection of bargain basement buys. It might be better taking a punt on some of the youngsters coming through like Horne Jnr, Hastings Jnr, etc.

Results - the rest of the season looks pretty tough and apart from the respite of playing Timisoara in January look like we will struggle to pick up many points. I am afraid this league season is already dead in the water and it looks like 9th or 10th position is ours for the taking! We might get through to the later stages of the Diddy Cup but again can’t see us doing much against the likely opposition thereafter. Perhaps we need to start preparing for next season now? The rest of this season is a damage limitation exercise and we need to look forward to August!

Supporters - will Myreside help or hinder? JP must be worried about the declining gates, revenue and generally lack of public interest in Embra at the moment. In previous years, even when we were losing we had the likes of Laidlaw, Visser and Scott to light up a game and at least make us think we might win. However the current team has no flying wingers, no Chainsaw or even a Chunk to get the crowd excited. The team has lost its personality and with it any connection to the supporters. Solomon made us into one of the most boring teams in the league and with that the crowds have evaporated. We really do need some bold signing or some excitement potential within the team to get the crowds back. At least Hodge is trying to play an expansive game but hasn’t had the bodies to put it into action.

2017 - is a very important year for Embra. Whether we like to admit it or not the team is slowly dying and most teams now see us in the same light as the Italians, a team to target for an away win and a TBP victory. The SRU are playing the last few rolls of the dice with Myreside, possible new funding and the new managers appointment. They have to get it right otherwise 2017 might be remembered for the wrong reasons.
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby Friday Knight Lights on Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:36 pm

I don't think the team is slowly dying, it's been like this for years. For all the negativity you seem to have forgotten we were actually very close (two games?) from the top 6 last year. We'll be nowhere near this year with a lot less points so if you look at the table 2016 will likely (barring some miraculous turn around or Challenge Cup run) be better than 2017.

Also there's plenty players to be excited about; Hoyland, Kinghorn and Bradbury are three of the best young player's we've had at Edinburgh and more to come through the academies and returning from London Scottish next year - Miller, Fraser, Galbraith, Robbins etc.
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby gowrie on Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:48 pm

The team's not dying. We've been in worse nick than this before, we'll pull through eventually. Outside Edinburgh, rugby in Scotland is looking up, stronger and more competitive age grade sides, rising standards in the Prem, more efforts to spread the game to new areas, and to women and girls. We'll see some joy from it eventually (as the likes of our better U20 sides start coming through, which has already begun with Bradbury et al).

But a strong identity, which might be helped by Myreside, a good experienced coach to give us a solid gameplan, and integrating young talent, will help us see that benefit a whole lot quicker. 2017 probably is not going to be great, but hopefully the precursor to a better time down the road.
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby dolf_lundgren on Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:38 pm

Did we not say something similar at the start of 2016?
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby germain on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:12 pm

2017 can be as bad as 2016, and even worse, but let's hope not!

In the league, we're 9 points from the seventh place (I think that the sixth is already out of reach), with Connacht and Cardiff ahead of us. They're better than us but they're also struggling a bit, so it's still open... If, and only if, we have much better results.
Our next three league games are Leinster away, Munster at home, and Ulster away. We need at least one win, and every other positive result will be great. We won't have much pressure on the away games, so why not upsetting everybody? We'll see if an away victory in Italy is everything we're able to achieve or if we can do better.

In the challenge, everything is still open. And a Murrayfield final is a great target. If Hodge guides our team there, he will equal Solomons' best result in three years. Not so bad.

Hodge has to prove he is worth the job, so he will give everything. Why not hoping for improved results? If he doesn't rise to the challenge, maybe we'll see someone else who will hopefully improve our young and promising team.

I won't criticize our squad. It is what it is. I'll just look at the man who is in charge. And at the man who recruits him. Here is one (big) key.
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby The Feral Goat on Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:00 am

For me we need a coach that can come in and maximise the potential of the players we have. The current group have at times had a great set piece, solid defence and on occasion this season even some good attacking play but I can’t think of a single match the last 4-5 years when all three have happened at once. While our results continue to prove otherwise I still think this group of players should have been able to challenge for the top 6. We can’t afford, in financial or time terms, yet another rebuild season so the current squad has to be improved through coaching/training. So whoever is coach next season needs to be able to get more out of them and on a consistent basis we don’t need great open rugby just well drilled, well executed basic skills would be a big improvement. This season is Donald Ducked already, we look like we are struggling to get near 7th never mind top 6.

Hodge is perhaps a bit unlucky to have the role thrust upon him in the manner it was as he had no time or pre-season etc to imbed his ideas and systems, however in the months he has been in charge the old issues of consistency have not been addressed and the amount of times we have read about players not being mentally up for games is not acceptable for a Pro team (a shared responsibility with the players) so for me he is not the answer as head coach. I like the idea of Mike Blair, although untested as a head coach, he comes across as very knowledgeable in his commentary and articles (as does Chris Paterson) and I think may bring the outlook we need to move us forward having been in the positive Glasgow environment rather than Hodge under Solly.

Moreover while I accept some of our players are underperforming and could do with a kick up the NigelOwens rest I am not sure blooding more young players now is the answer either, I would prefer to see them come in next season to a new coaching team in a new environment rather than expose more young talent to one that is consistently not delivering.

For the second half of this season I really hope Nel, Bresler etc return from injury soon and give us a boost and with the league top 6 pretty much out of sight perhaps a shift of focus to targeting the Challenge cup with the final at Murrayfield as a possible route to the champions cup. Hopefully all involved with the club will get a lift from being in the closer confines of Myreside as well. Lastly need some more positive signing news on a few of our out of contract better players and the head coach situation resolved as soon as possible.
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby Tichtheid on Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:43 pm

Edit - I originally said that there was no route to the Champs Cup except through the league this season, I had only read part of the qualification criteria -

In accordance with the Heads of Agreement drawn up by the nine unions, federations and league bodies, the 20th place in the Champions Cup will be decided by a series of play-off matches.

The play-offs will include the following clubs:

The seventh-ranked club from the TOP 14, or the winner of the Challenge Cup if from the TOP 14 and not already qualified for the Champions Cup.
The seventh-ranked club from the Aviva Premiership, or the winner of the Challenge Cup if from the Aviva Premiership and not already qualified for the Champions Cup.
The eight and ninth-ranked clubs from the PRO12, or the winner of the Challenge Cup if from the PRO12 and not already qualified for the Champions Cup. This club will take the place in the play-offs of the ninth-ranked club.


Edinburgh is not dying, there will always be a pro team in Edinburgh as long as there is a professional competition, but we are in a hell of a state. I maintain that our pack is definitely top six material, and we have some promise in the backs.
If you look at the successful teams over the last few years, Connacht, Glasgow, Leinster (twice) and Ospreys, they all won playing expansive rugby. The thing that struck me particularly about Leinster and Connacht is that expansiveness was not about individual brilliance (ignoring BOD for a minute), it's more about running good lines straight off the training pitch and running off quick ball. When Leinster cut us to ribbons at the end of the season a couple of years ago I was almost applauding the ruthlessness and simplicity of it, for anyone not an Edinburgh fan it was brilliant to watch, it was that old cliche of doing the simple things very well and at pace.

My point is that Lam and Schmidt were the brains behind their wins, just as Toonie is what drives Glasgow. We don't have that kind of thinking at Edinburgh. Watching the highlights of last weekend's game Dean showed good pace to run in from a dropped ball and Kinghorn's little chip through was really nicely executed. Those two plus Hoyland are the core of the backs. Allen has shown some bright sparks this season, Burleigh was a good New Zealand Super 12 player without worrying the All Blacks.

My feeling is that we need someone to come in from elsewhere to instill a bit of confidence in the players, get them organised properly and send them out knowing they will play full-on for 80 minutes and that they will win.
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby Friday Knight Lights on Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:19 pm

Tichtheid wrote:If you look at the successful teams over the last few years, Connacht, Glasgow, Leinster (twice) and Ospreys, they all won playing expansive rugby. The thing that struck me particularly about Leinster and Connacht is that expansiveness was not about individual brilliance (ignoring BOD for a minute), it's more about running good lines straight off the training pitch and running off quick ball. When Leinster cut us to ribbons at the end of the season a couple of years ago I was almost applauding the ruthlessness and simplicity of it, for anyone not an Edinburgh fan it was brilliant to watch, it was that old cliche of doing the simple things very well and at pace.

My point is that Lam and Schmidt were the brains behind their wins, just as Toonie is what drives Glasgow. We don't have that kind of thinking at Edinburgh. Watching the highlights of last weekend's game Dean showed good pace to run in from a dropped ball and Kinghorn's little chip through was really nicely executed. Those two plus Hoyland are the core of the backs. Allen has shown some bright sparks this season, Burleigh was a good New Zealand Super 12 player without worrying the All Blacks.

My feeling is that we need someone to come in from elsewhere to instill a bit of confidence in the players, get them organised properly and send them out knowing they will play full-on for 80 minutes and that they will win.


I agree with the end paragraph, I think we need a fresh approach and changing the mentality of the players. But that comes with winning not just a new coach unfortunately as Scotland have shown under Cotter and all the chat about Duncan Taylor changing the mindset in the camp as he 'wasn't used to losing'.

I'm not sure I'd say Ospreys have been successful the last few years - they're usually scrapping to make top6. They've been extremely impressive this year though and as you say with Leinster the way the Ospreys were cutting us apart at their place was so simple and ruthless you had to be impressed (also concerned about our inside defence). But it's to be seen if they can repeat what they're doing next year - they could fall off like Connacht have. I'm not sure what we can learn from your Leinster's and Munster's as they're just superb and always have been, always will be. They can attract big, big name coaches who see it is a stepping stone for better things: Schmidt, Cheika, Lancaster. I think we should be looking more at Glasgow for inspiration - especially as the SRU knows how they're run.

Hodge is trying to play an expansive game and we've had some success but if you're not building an expansive game from solid foundations you won't do to well and he's realised that and trying to shore us up. I think we do need to improve our defence as we're conceding a lot of points - 3rd most in the league ahead of the Italian's. If you have a good defence and Weir can get us playing in the right areas of the pitch then you can start to build an expansive game.
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby Tichtheid on Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:52 pm

I'm not sure I'd say Ospreys have been successful the last few years - they're usually scrapping to make top6.


I should have been more precise, I meant that when those teams won the league they did so playing expansive rugby, the Os won the final against Leinster despite a terrible refereeing display if memory serves.

Tbh, I don't really remember that much about the Os in that particular season, but I was trying to get across the point that Glasgow, Leinster and last season's Connacht built success via excellent coaching.
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby germain on Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:12 am

Tichtheid wrote:
I'm not sure I'd say Ospreys have been successful the last few years - they're usually scrapping to make top6.


I should have been more precise, I meant that when those teams won the league they did so playing expansive rugby, the Os won the final against Leinster despite a terrible refereeing display if memory serves.

Tbh, I don't really remember that much about the Os in that particular season, but I was trying to get across the point that Glasgow, Leinster and last season's Connacht built success via excellent coaching.


Ospreys are one of the more regular team in the pro 12 in recent years. And the best welsh side. They are well coached and play an expansive brand of rugby. Last season was bad because of the WC (They're not as good without their internationals, it's been their main problem for years).

I still don't know what to think about Hodge. Can he be our rugby brain for some years? He has to prove it right now. The 7th place is not out of reach (9 points with one game in hand), and we all want a final in the challenge cup. May he rise to the task, he could be our man. If not, it would be clever to turn our eyes on someone else.
That is definitly a hight level of requirement, but this is one of the three top rugby job in Scotland, so the demand must be hight.
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby New Gunner on Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:30 pm

germain wrote:
Tichtheid wrote:
I'm not sure I'd say Ospreys have been successful the last few years - they're usually scrapping to make top6.


I should have been more precise, I meant that when those teams won the league they did so playing expansive rugby, the Os won the final against Leinster despite a terrible refereeing display if memory serves.

Tbh, I don't really remember that much about the Os in that particular season, but I was trying to get across the point that Glasgow, Leinster and last season's Connacht built success via excellent coaching.


Ospreys are one of the more regular team in the pro 12 in recent years. And the best welsh side. They are well coached and play an expansive brand of rugby. Last season was bad because of the WC (They're not as good without their internationals, it's been their main problem for years).

I still don't know what to think about Hodge. Can he be our rugby brain for some years? He has to prove it right now. The 7th place is not out of reach (9 points with one game in hand), and we all want a final in the challenge cup. May he rise to the task, he could be our man. If not, it would be clever to turn our eyes on someone else.
That is definitly a hight level of requirement, but this is one of the three top rugby job in Scotland, so the demand must be hight.


Picking up on Germain's point, I thought it would be interesting to look at realistic targets for the second half of this season. As he says, 7th is within reach but only with a much improved second half. Being positive, we started off with a win away v Zebre, which has alluded us for the last few years.

I've looked at the points totals for 6th - 12th over the last few seasons to work out an average total points per position. Then I've looked at the remaining games to see the points we should target realistically, and a 'stretch' target that we could be capable of if firing on all cylinders etc. Finally, the scenario if we just continue with our shocking form of the first half.

I'd suggest the most likely outcome is that we finish 8th or 9th, but 7th should be the target we aim for (6th is technically achievable, but the chance has to be less than 1%). If we make 7th, Hodge will likely get the permanent gig. 8th or 9th, he may get it, 10th surely not. I can see the Leinster model working here, with say Lineen in a Lancaster-type role to mentor Hodge / whoever and to build the culture.

I'd like to see us really target the Challenge Cup though - the league is a more or less busted flush, whereas thanks to Timisoara we will likely at least qualify for an away quarter final. If we can top the group, or finish 5th overall to avoid the big boys, then you never know. The final being at Murrayfield should be a huge incentive to us.
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby biffer on Sun Jan 08, 2017 7:44 pm

Worth highlighting that both 7th and 8th get into a playoff for the last spot in the Champions Cup. Four team playoff, the two from the Pro12 plus 7th place from both the Aviva and Top14. Challenge Cup winner replaces the representative from their league if they haven't already qualified for the SuperSpiv cup. Pro12 teams are away from home against the French and English teams in the first round then the winners of each tie play for the last spot.
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby germain on Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:27 pm

Thanks for the graphic.
So the 6 Nations period will be absolutly critical with quite a crazy run (MunsterH; UlsterA; LeinsterA; CardiffH, OspreysH). It's not the worst calendar to play the "big 3", but away frm home, it's still a huge task.
In the same time, Carfiff will play ConnachtH, TrevisoH, EdinburghA and MunsterH. Reallistically, they could get 13 points will we could, realistically get 12. We're not going to reduce the gap being our normalself! We have to be great: take note Ulster and Leinster!

I think if we manage to get those 26 points (all home games won + win against Treviso away + some bonuses on the way), it will be quite satisfying, even ignoring our ranking.



biffer wrote: Challenge Cup winner replaces the representative from their league if they haven't already qualified for the SuperSpiv cup.


So winning the challenge cup doesn't allow you to play the Champions Cup?
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby biffer on Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:04 pm

germain wrote:
So winning the challenge cup doesn't allow you to play the Champions Cup?


Correct

http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbych ... /index.php
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Re: 2017 surely can’t be as bad as 2016?

Postby Friday Knight Lights on Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:29 pm

I'm not that bothered about the Champions Cup for next year, we're not a Champions Cup team so I think it would be papering over some seismic cracks to qualify and we'd just get battered every week anyway.

For me, the rest of the season is just all about building for next year. I'm in two minds with Hodge because he is showing some progression and tactics variation at times, he has overseen some of the best performances we've had in a while but he's also failed to sort out the clear mindset problems with the squad. I really think Edinburgh is too comfortable and we need that change in culture - hopefully Myreside will help but the buck stops with the coaches.

I just want to see consistent performances and a platform for a really good year next year. I'd want to see the player's improving combinations and individually and the move to Myreside a success.
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