Guinness Pro 14: Season 2017/18 predictions

RaboDirect Pro12 & Heineken Match Discussion, Referee Retribution, and Player Powwow

Moderators: pedro52, chappo, Ron, Loops

Forum rules
The Edinburgh Rugby Supporters Club is run by fans for fans. Please keep your comments on topic and treat other posters with respect.

Guinness Pro 14: Season 2017/18 predictions

Postby New Gunner on Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:46 pm

The kids have been packed off to grandparents for the second week in a row, leaving me with a dangerous amount of time on my hands this afternoon. So, I present for your interest my season preview for Conference B - if the kids stay away long enough I might attempt Conference A...

Oh, and apologies if I've missed any earth-shattering marquee signings...


Dragons

(Notable) Ins: Zane Kirchner (Leinster); Gavin Henson (Bristol)
(Notable) Outs: Tom Prydie (Scarlets); Geraint Jones (Scarlets); Rhys Thomas (retired)
Last season (regular league): 11th
This season: 7th (conference); 13th (overall, regular season)
Players to watch: Gavin Henson, Hallam Amos

The Drags have lost some experienced Welsh talent to the Scarlets or retirement, and have recruited a couple of seasoned backs with excellent pedigree. Undoubtedly though, Kirchner and Henson have their best years behind them – will the chunk of salary budget spent on these two represent value for money? Time will tell, but it’s a gamble.

You can’t imagine losing Kingsley Jones as coach will exactly be a blow, with former Irish international Bernard Jackman taking up the reins. Off the field, over the summer the WRU took ownership to save the region from financial collapse, while back on the field, the much-maligned soggy sandpit of old is being replaced by a shiny new hybrid pitch. Champagne rugby surely awaits the Rodney Parade faithful…



Edinburgh

Ins: Mark Bennett (Glasgow); Robbie Freuan (Bath); Duhan van der Merwe (Montpelier)
Outs: Nasi Manu (Treviso); George Turner (Glasgow, loan)
Last season: 9th
This season: 4th (conference); 7th
Players to watch: Robbie Freuan, Darcy Graham

Edinburgh kick off their first full (sort of) season at Myreside, and the new Richard Cockerill era, in what could be an eventful 2017/18 season for the perennial underachievers. Cockers arrived to find that no one could tell him what the culture of Edinburgh Rugby was, so he is setting about creating his own from the basics. You suspect fewer Instagram pics of frothy lattés…

The head coach has revamped his coaching team, with club legend Roddy Grant joining ‘Kitty’ McRae, the latter after a highly successful stint at Scotland Sevens topped off with back-to-back Twickenham titles. With the raw material felt to be there already in the pack (if requiring to be roused from collective slumber by a size 12 boot up the backside from Cockerill), the much-maligned backline has seen surgery over the summer.

With Mark Bennett rupturing his ACL before the ink was even dry on his Embra contract, the long-suffering Black ‘n’ Red Army will have to wait until 2018 to see the first choice centre combination, and much will depend on the man mountain Freuan steering clear of injury, and bashing over the gain line with that cow-sized heart (valve) of his. Cockers’ blueprint screams go-forward power more than graceful dancing feet, with South African wing Van der Merwe (and indeed Jason Harries) adding to the impression of a beefed-up attack. However, the surprise package could be Hawick wunderkind Darcy Graham, stepping up from the academy slight in stature but fleet of foot, on the back of some impressive performances for Scotland U20s in the last couple of World Cups. Indeed the future is bright, with several academy graduates having the potential to make a mark this year.

Wary of another false dawn, the Gunners faithful will settle for a competitive showing this year, around the fringes of European qualification with the potential to squeeze over the line…


Leinster

Ins: Scott Fardy (Brumbies); James Lowe (Chiefs)
Outs: Zane Kirchner (Dragons); Mike Ross, Mike McCarthy (retired); Dominic Ryan (Leicester)
Last season: 2nd
This season: 1st (conference); 1st
Players to watch: Joey Carbery, James Lowe

The Dubliners didn’t muck about with their recruitment, going for a couple of top drawer SH imports – all killer no filler. Wallaby Fardy fills a Dominic Ryan-shaped hole in the second row, with the latter off to Welford Road, Richard Cockerill’s old stomping ground. Maori All Black winger Lowe arrives off the back of an impressive Souper season for the Chiefs, and will be looking forward to a reunion with Scotstoun-bound coach Dave Rennie. A project player if ever there was one.

While Lowe is certainly an upgrade on Kirchner, the retirements of the vastly experienced Mikes (Ross and McCarthy) may be keenly felt, with the prolific Leinster academy being relied upon to promote from within. Indeed, one of the graduates is a certain Nick McCarthy, pointing to an alphabetical progression / recycling policy is in place. Jonny Sexton and Rob Kearney will be very much kept on their toes by young Carbery, as back seat driver Stuart Lancaster looks on from the back of the coaches’ box.


Scarlets

Ins: Leigh Halfpenny (Toulon); Tom Prydie (Dragons); Geraint Jones (Dragons); Tom Grabham (Ospreys)
Outs: Liam Williams (Saracens); DTH Van der Merwe (Newcastle); Aled Thomas (retired); Rynier Bernardo (released)
Last season: 3rd (winners)
This season: 2nd (conference); 4th
Players to watch: Jonathan Davies, Steff Evans

A couple of big departures from the backline over the summer, with Lions’ Test full back Liam Williams joining the freshly-crowned European champions Saracens, and former Glasgow try machine DTHVDM heading to the north east. A lot of tries going out the door then, and until recently the cupboard was pretty bare in terms of replacements, with some region-shuffling going on but arguably no real quality arriving.

And then, perhaps emboldened by the extra half million in TV cash promised upon confirmation of the South African expansion, the club and WRU dug deep to find the necessary to line Leigh Halfpenny’s pockets with enough cash to tempt him back from Toulon / the wilderness. Mourad’s notoriously fragile patience had run out, and with the same view perhaps holding sway in Avivaland (1/2-P only ever seems to play for Wales or the Lions), realistically he was going to end up at a Welsh region. Which shouldn’t stop us sniggering at the back as Weegie forum-ites speculated that Leigh could be a stopgap injury ‘joker’ replacement for Hogg…

Their new recruit should kick Scarlets plenty of points, if he plays, but you suspect Patchell will be a more regular starter in reality. The high-profile departures, together with second season syndrome, may prove to be a challenge for the West Walians, much may depend on the form and fitness of their returning Lions stars, and the further improvement of Steff Evans on the wing.


Southern Kings

Ins: Er, tumbleweeds…
Outs: Schalk van der Merwe (Ulster); Makazole Mapimpi (Cheetahs); Irne Herbst (Treviso); Chris Cloete (Munster); Wilhelm van der Sluys (Exeter Chiefs)
Last season: N/A
This season: 5th (conference); 9th
Players to watch: Schalk Ferreira, 5 new Springboks

The Kings, traditionally whipping boys / relegation yo-yos of Super Rugby, rather overachieved this year with 6 wins from 15, and a creditable 11th out of 18 overall, probably. Can anyone actually master the advanced algebra required to calculate the multi-conference melting pot that is the overall standings?

What do we know of the Kings? They have a rather nice stadium (The Nelson Mandela Bay, as you’re asking), with a capacity many multiples of the crowd they’re likely to attract for that tasty end of season hit-out against Zebre. It was here that Alan Solomons honed his vision of total rugby before leading them to relegation and signing up with Embra, in fairness bringing with him ‘the Complete Package’, or Cornell Du Preez to the rest of us.

Their reasonable stab at Soup this season has resulted in a veritable exodus to their new stablemates in the Pro 14. None of the current team has been selected for the Springboks’ Rugby Championship squad. Who will replace them? Er, awkward silence… oh, hang on say the SARU, we’re going to draft a minimum of 5 current Springboks from the Bulls / Stormers / Lions / Sharks to bring them up to scratch. There must be a few Cape Town ‘boks sitting in their rather nice waterfront restaurants, praying the phone won’t ring…



Treviso

Ins: Marty Banks (Highlanders); Nasi Manu (Edinburgh); Whetu Douglas (Crusaders); Irne Herbst (Southern Kings); Federico Ruzza (Zebre)
Outs: Luke McLean (London Irish); Filo Paulo (London Irish); David Odiete (Rovigo)
Last season: 10th
This season: 6th (conference); 12th
Players to watch: Marty Banks, Nasi Manu

The perennial strugglers actually picked up 5 wins in the Pro 12 last season – who could forget the 21-6 pumping administered to the boys in black ‘n’ red? Looking at their somewhat impressive recruitment this summer, I have the nagging feeling the above lowly predictions may come back to bite me…

Perhaps most impressive is Marty Banks, fresh from coming off the bench – broken rib and all – to kick the winning penalty that beat the British & Irish Lions in Dunedin in June. A cult favourite at the Highlanders, with a highly accurate kicking game, he is sure to put Tommy Allan’s backside on the bench more often than not. Indeed with Ian McKinley and Edoardo Gori in the mix, it looks like the Italians have significantly more quality at half back than Embra.

Add to that the arriving Maori All Black Whetu Douglas, and permacrock former Super Rugby-winning captain Nasi Manu, and something may be stirring down Benetton way. Iren Herbst has been a standout on loan at the Kings this season, although he is committed to the Blue Bulls until the end of Currie Cup.

Treviso have recruited very well, and may be about to surprise a few people.



Ulster

Ins: Jean Deysel (Sharks); Schalk van der Merwe (Southern Kings); John Cooney (Connacht)
Outs: Ruan Pienaar (Montpelier); Roger Wilson (retired)
Last season: 5th
This season: 3rd (conference); 6th
Players to watch: On-field – Jacob Stockdale, Marcell Coetzee; Off-field Paddy Jackson, Stuart Olding

And they called us Edinbokke?! With Saffers Louis Ludik, Wiehahn Herbst and Marcell Coetzee (the latter also a Springbok) already at the club, Ulster signed Arno Botha, before cancelling the transfer of the South Africa international on medical grounds in May. Not to be deterred, they dusted themselves down and poached another current Springbok, Jean Deysel, from the Natal Sharks. Oh, and Shalk van der Merwe from the Southern Kings, to refill their ‘Van der Merwe’ quota, with Franco of that ilk having joined Cardiff for the coming season.

Of course, the Springbok they really want, they can’t have, and a tearful Ruan Pienaar said his farewells before signing up with Stern Vern’s Montpelier revolution (although Cotter really wanted Greeg, but he couldn’t have him).

With Marcell Coetzee effectively like a new signing following an injury-plagued start to life in the North, All Black Jono Gibbes will inherit a mean and streetwise pack of beefy Boks, supplemented by the odd Lion in Best and Henderson. The former Clermont forwards coach will be licking his lips in anticipation, but his problems lie at half back. With the aforementioned Pienaar off to France, last season’s first choice combination is out of the picture due to the ‘unavailability’ of Paddy Jackson. He, and team-mate Stuart Olding, are to be prosecuted for rape, and are likely to miss the entire season as they are relieved of their duties pending the case.

Keeping comment strictly on rugby topics, this change at the heart of the backs may result in an unbalanced team of forward power, but no playmakers. One wonders if they’ll hire former coach Solly as a consultant?
New Gunner
World Cup Star
 
Posts: 618
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:53 pm

Re: Guinness Pro 14: Season 2017/18 predictions

Postby gowrie on Mon Aug 07, 2017 5:30 pm

I'll have a go for us
League: 3rd (conference), 6th (overall), Lose in playoffs
Challenge Cup: 1st in pool, Out at the semi-finals

Edinburgh breakthrough player: Jamie Ritchie
Scotland breakthrough player: Rory Sutherland

Player of the season: Hamish Watson
Top try scorer: Damien Hoyland
gowrie
World Cup Star
 
Posts: 1256
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:31 am

Re: Guinness Pro 14: Season 2017/18 predictions

Postby Martin Bell on Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:55 pm

Apart from the - I'm afraid very serious - error of misspelling Mr Fruean's surname, this is a masterful preview. While I'm not sure about a latte ban, I, too, think that 'Mr Darcy' Graham is going to be spectacular.
Proud former sponsor of McKane legend @m4gnet_ and future Glasgow legend Rory Darge and current sponsor of @Muncaster_Ben
#lovinthescrummin
User avatar
Martin Bell
World Cup Star
 
Posts: 1424
Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 9:27 pm
Location: @TheEmbraExpress

Re: Guinness Pro 14: Season 2017/18 predictions

Postby Friday Knight Lights on Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:58 pm

gowrie wrote:I'll have a go for us
League: 3rd (conference), 6th (overall), Lose in playoffs
Challenge Cup: 1st in pool, Out at the semi-finals

Edinburgh breakthrough player: Jamie Ritchie
Scotland breakthrough player: Rory Sutherland

Player of the season: Hamish Watson
Top try scorer: Damien Hoyland


League 2nd (think Scarlets might have a post Pro12 win drop) lose in playoffs.
Challenge cup out in quarters.

Edinburgh breakthrough player: Hugh Fraser
Scotland breakthrough player: King Blairhorn (if Hogg is out Autumn), Magnus Bradbury if Hogg is fit.

Player of the season: Grant Gilchrist (if he stays fit Cockers finally turns him into a real enforcer)
Top try scorer: Jason Harries.
Friday Knight Lights
World Cup Star
 
Posts: 2654
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:44 pm

Re: Guinness Pro 14: Season 2017/18 predictions

Postby Tichtheid on Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:46 pm

Good preview NG.

Like others I'm excited by the prospect of Darcy Graham, his pace and his quick feet are deadly, plus his ability to get through tacklers at the last Junior WC was almost Hamish Watson-esque. His defence is good too, we could have a real gem there.

The guy I want to see step up is Murray McCallum - the ideal is that Dicko is fit and backed up by (and eventually handing over to) Dell and Sutherland, leaving McCallum to cement his place on the righteous side of the scrum.
He looks great in the loose - remember him chicken-winging an offload at full pelt against the Dragons last season?
I can't wait to see him develop, he looked very solid in the tight last year, for a very young guy coming in from club rugby and switching sides, it was astonishing how well he held up - another gem
Tichtheid
World Cup Star
 
Posts: 2862
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2012 7:51 pm
Location: Alba Bheag

Re: Guinness Pro 14: Season 2017/18 predictions

Postby The Feral Goat on Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:42 pm

League – I think if we are lucky with injuries we may just sneak into the top 3 of the conference.
Challenge cup – Quarters

Edinburgh breakthrough player: a lot of exciting young talent in ER squad now but I think after a couple of seasons on the fringes Jamie Ritchie he is going to have a big season
Scotland breakthrough player: DuPreez back to his best at club and stepping up to international

Player of the season: Robbie Fruean - a beast in midfield creating space for our exciting back 3
Top try scorer: van der Merve

I am also looking forward to Mr Cockerills take on the Pro12 refs :twisted:
The Feral Goat
World Cup Star
 
Posts: 3061
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:55 am

Re: Guinness Pro 14: Season 2017/18 predictions

Postby biffer on Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:56 pm

I think Cockers reaction the standards of refereeing will be one of the most entertaining ongoing stories this season.
Don't mention Rory Hutton. I did once but I think I got away with it.
biffer
World Cup Star
 
Posts: 4216
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:07 pm

Re: Guinness Pro 14: Season 2017/18 predictions

Postby New Gunner on Tue Aug 22, 2017 7:38 pm

Martin Bell wrote:Apart from the - I'm afraid very serious - error of misspelling Mr Fruean's surname, this is a masterful preview. While I'm not sure about a latte ban, I, too, think that 'Mr Darcy' Graham is going to be spectacular.


Guilty as charged Martin...

Young Darcy showed some nice touches in the Sale game, and the quick elevation to Scotland training squad suggests all are impressed with how he's showing up pre-season. The next Hogg?
New Gunner
World Cup Star
 
Posts: 618
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2014 9:53 pm

Re: Guinness Pro 14: Season 2017/18 predictions

Postby TheSmidge on Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:41 am

I'm more optimistic than I have been for several years, but given the state of the team under Solly and, latterly, Hodge, that is pretty much due entirely to Cockers. I could be proved wrong of course, but I am really enjoying his emphasis on youth and creating a team culture that will build on some of the young, raw talent we have. A few of the old stagers are required to get us through the next 2-3 years, but there are some good foundations.

At the start of the summer, I'd been hoping for a marquee signing at 9 or 10 to really drive the team on and provide some quality playmaking, but I can understand that the ethos Cockers is building might not work if we had one "big shot" in the side. Fruean and Bennett are as close of marquee signings as we've got I suppose, and it's a shame that we won't see that partnership in play until the new year at least.

If the team blends well, starts well, and doesn't let narrow defeats drag on our mentality, we are in competition for 3rd in the conference. But that could easily be 5th if Ulster can use Lealiifano to fire them up and the Kings get up to speed quicker than most expect. We should finish above the Dragons and Treviso. On balance then, I'm going for 4th and an unexpected victory in the play-off for the final Champions Cup spot.

Player of the season should be another straight fight between Toolis and Watson, though his availability under international windows may see Fruean come through. If he gets firing, I'd expect to see him lead the try scoring table as well.

Young player of the season is wide open. I expect Bradbury, Ritchie, KingBlair and McCallum to all be in the mix, but am drooling at the prospect of Darcy Graham carve open a few defences!
TheSmidge
World Cup Star
 
Posts: 312
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:11 pm

Re: Guinness Pro 14: Season 2017/18 predictions

Postby germain on Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:17 pm

I hope for some small improvements.
Last year we were 9th and closer to the 10th than to the 8th, so something like fifth in the new Pro14.
Fourth would be a bit disappointing. So I dream of a third place in the conference !
If Hodge leaves earlier, the improvements could be faster... :roll:

EDIT: It's not in our conference but I will look after Bradley's work at Zebre with attention.
germain
World Cup Star
 
Posts: 553
Joined: Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:27 pm


Return to Edinburgh Rugby Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 41 guests