Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby BruceLee on Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:33 pm

Pitfitter446 wrote:If we do our bit and win our own games we can’t complain about failures, any help from others is a bonus, I’d love some bonus.

That would be nice for someone else to slip up instead of us.Tbh our destiny lies in our own hands and how hungry we are to dispose of the Scarlets,on paper you would reckon we should edge this,but it comes back to our appalling away form,but unfortunately, this is where we are; probably the most pivotal game in a while,i reckon we can do this and it could come down to the Glasgow match at the end of the season, and boy would they be up to deny us a possible Champions cup place next season.All those dropped points could still come back to haunt us, but hopefully not.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby biffer on Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:16 pm

Glasgow doing a real job on Ulster for us tonight.
Don't mention Rory Hutton. I did once but I think I got away with it.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby TheSmidge on Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:29 pm

Much appreciated performance from Glasgow tonight. All to play for now, but my gut feeling is we still have to come away from Scarlets with something.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby KenMavor on Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:32 pm

TheSmidge wrote:Much appreciated performance from Glasgow tonight. All to play for now, but my gut feeling is we still have to come away from Scarlets with something.



The Edinburgh team just need to play to their strengths and take heart from that Glasgow game. Both Scottish teams are good teams. Need a bit of self belief now.

C'mon Embra!!
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby gunner_graham on Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:12 pm

Weegies have done us a double favour by sending home Ulster with nothing and by giving them such a doing that they will surely have the fear when they return next week. We need to take the opportunity with both hands and sort Scarlets out tomorrow and then Ulster next week.
Maybe by then Glasgow will have sewn up a home semi and we can take the win a playoff place. :roll:
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Pitfitter446 on Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:26 pm

We need to the chance in both hands and squeeze the life out of it.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby disco on Sat Apr 06, 2019 1:35 am

Win v Scarlets + win v Ulster + a BP somewhere should be enough to keep Edinburgh ahead of Scarlets. Should also be enough to keep Edinburgh ahead of Benetton assuming they lose to Leinster and Munster. If Ulster also lose to Leinster in Round 21 it's possible Edinburgh could still finish 2nd in Conference B and host a home playoff match.

If Edinburgh lose to Scarlets tomorrow it's highly unlikely they will be able to finish ahead of the Welsh side and it becomes really tight for getting enough points to finish ahead of Ulster and/or Benetton.

The game at Parc Y Scarlets is absolutely huge.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby The Feral Goat on Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:00 am

U 54, B 52, E 51, S 45

Benettons draw at the weekend could be huge for them come the final weekend, I suspect they won’t be fearing Munster visiting this week and may well take the scalp, we can maybe hope Munster will take a strong team as they try to overtake Glasgow and top the conference.

Scarlets are not necessarily out of it they could quite possible get maximum points in the last two games v Zebre and Dragons meaning at best they will have 55 points

Out task is still relatively uncomplicated in that it remains win all games. Ulster certainly looked very beatable their pack got battered by Glasgow hopefully we can do the same on Friday. If we could somehow manage a BP win it would take us to 56pts therefore knocking Scarlets out of the running (with ER) and guarantee us to be in at least the Champions cup play off spot.

More likely perhaps is a win for us and an LBP for Ulster leaving us both on 55 and subject to what Benetton get out of the Munster match a 3 way shoot out for 2nd to 4th in conference on the final day.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Pitfitter446 on Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:36 pm

If only we had won a couple more away games(or held on at home) my head wouldn’t be swimming with possibilities :P , roll on Friday, one less game in the equation. :arrow:
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby The Feral Goat on Thu Apr 11, 2019 1:19 pm

Munster resting a load of players for their trip to Treviso

Munster:

Mike Haley; Darren Sweetnam, Sammy Arnold, Dan Goggin, Shane Daly; JJ Hanrahan, Alby Mathewson; Jeremy Loughman, Rhys Marshall, Stephen Archer; Fineen Wycherley, Billy Holland (C); Jack O’Donoghue, Chris Cloete, Gavin Coombes.

Replacements: Kevin O’Byrne, Liam O’Connor, Ciaran Parker, Darren O’Shea, Dave O’Callaghan, Neil Cronin, Bill Johnston, Alex McHenry.


Benetton Rugby:

15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Ratuva Tavuyara, 13 Tommaso Benvenuti, 12 Marco Zanon, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Tommaso Allan (C), 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Toa Halafihi, 7 Abraham Steyn, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Irné Herbst, 3 Marco Riccioni, 2 Luca Bigi, 1 Nicola Quaglio.

Substitutes: 16 Hame Faiva, 17 Cherif Traore, 18 Simone Ferrari, 19 Marco Lazzaroni, 20 Giovanni Pettinelli, 21 Tito Tebaldi, 22 Antonio Rizzi, 23 Tommaso Iannone
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby TheSmidge on Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:43 pm

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think it all breaks down something like this:

1. Two BP wins and we’re guaranteed 3rd as we’d finish above Ulster. Finishing 2nd then depends inn benetton’s results.

2. Lose to Ulster and Benetton beat Munster, then barring a miracle, 4th is the best we can expect.

3. Beat Ulster, so long as we don’t give them 2 BPs and we would just need to better their result on the final weekend to finish 3rd.

4. Lose twice and we’ll probably be 5th, without even a CC play off.

That’s the critical variations I think.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Tichtheid on Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:50 pm

Talk about squeaky bum time!

I've had to revise this post several times as each time I look at the possibilities in FG's post and look at the table there is more intrigue.

Two wins for us and we should secure third place but we must not only win on Friday, we must win by 8 points.

I'm assuming Benetton will pick up nine points in their last two games.

There is also a three way fight for places 3 and 4 in conference A

I've haven't been a critic of the conference system, but I know there are some who don't like it. There are two rounds of very important games to go now with very few if any dead rubbers, even Leinster who are assured a home semi final still have a say on the make up of the play offs depending on the strength of their selections over the next two weekends of the league
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby TheSmidge on Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:41 pm

Tichtheid wrote:
Two wins for us and we should secure third place but we must not only win on Friday, we must win by 8 points.



I think that as long as we win, regardless of margin, that will be enough to go above them due to our current advantage in points difference (+41 vs -6 at present). I don't see them overcoming that differential in the next two games.

If they get two BPs, for a narrow 4-try defeat, then I would consider it unlikely that we wouldn't have also got a try BP and so both would be on 56 going into the final weekend and, again, our points difference would give us an advantage. Then, we would simply need to match their result to guarantee at least 3rd.

If Benetton only got 4, and we got 5, then we would be 2nd if they don't win by 3 more than we do. They are, however, virtually guaranteed 5 against Zebre in the last game so we would need to match that and, probably, thump the Warriors as well.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Tichtheid on Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:08 pm

TheSmidge wrote:
Tichtheid wrote:
Two wins for us and we should secure third place but we must not only win on Friday, we must win by 8 points.



I think that as long as we win, regardless of margin, that will be enough to go above them due to our current advantage in points difference (+41 vs -6 at present). I don't see them overcoming that differential in the next two games.

If they get two BPs, for a narrow 4-try defeat, then I would consider it unlikely that we wouldn't have also got a try BP and so both would be on 56 going into the final weekend and, again, our points difference would give us an advantage. Then, we would simply need to match their result to guarantee at least 3rd.

If Benetton only got 4, and we got 5, then we would be 2nd if they don't win by 3 more than we do. They are, however, virtually guaranteed 5 against Zebre in the last game so we would need to match that and, probably, thump the Warriors as well.



I was taking into account the possibility of Ulster getting the full five points in a thrashing of Leinster, as unlikely as that sounds.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby BruceLee on Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:03 am

The only thing that really TonySpreadbury me off is that Leinster and Munster will field weakened teams and they are more than beatable,but the have the Semis of the Heineken to consider and with more depth over any other teams in the league they will exercise their right to field these weakened teams;but really it is our own fault for fluffing so many results earlier in the season,if we had not we would have been sitting comfortably in second spot in our conference and in all likely hood,could have lost our remaining to matches and still finished second if you look at the points the teams we are competing with have amassed up to the present date.Edinburgh can still do this and we need to right wrongs with Ulster and give them a right hiding at BTM tonight ,nothing more, nothing less.
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