by The Feral Goat on Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:35 pm
Edinburgh
H – Leinster
A – Scarlets
H – Ulster
A – Glasgow
Scarlets
A – Cardiff
H – Edinburgh
H – Zebre
A – Dragons
Ulster
H – Kings
A – Glasgow
A – Edinburgh
H – Leinster
Benetton
A - Connacht
A - Leinster
H – Munster
A - Zebre
Where are the straws to grab at then…
Conference finished up really close last season, going down to the last day hopefully we can make it happen again this season.
We have the toughest run-in and simply have to win all 4 games. Hopefully we won’t need to rest many of our returning internationals and can hope that first match Leinster, with them comfortable at the top, will take the chance to do so ahead of their HC quarter final we don't have that luxury.
Game 1
Ulster we would expect to pick up a TBP v Kings so if we beat Leinster we would likely be 8 points adrift of them and say both Scarlets and Benetton lose away we would possible sneak into 4th above Scarlets and be 4 pts behind Benetton assuming a LBP for Scarlets but not Benetton (U54, B54, S46, E46)*
Game 2
Irrespective the next match away to Scarlets is looking to be make or break and the biggest game of the season although Ulster and Benetton could both easily lose away to Glasgow and Leinster a win for us would I think have us level with Benetton, 4 behind Ulster and 4 ahead of Scarlets. (U54, B50, S47, E50)*
Game 3
So onto the new biggest game of the season and a must win v Ulster at home to take us level on points with them assuming no LBP or TBP for either side. Scarlets are likely to pick a TBP win at home to Zebre and so move to within 2 of us and Ulster. Benetton a tough match at home v Munster who are likely to be fighting Glasgow for that top spot. (U54, B50, S52, E54)*
Game 4
All leading to one horrifically nervous final day that I don’t even want to think about!
So it is possible we could still make playoffs and qualify for the CC. Not sure I can see us win all 4 particularly away to Scarlets, nor am I convinced Benetton are not going to take another scalp before the final day of the season but all is not lost yet. First and foremost it needs 4 massive performances from Edinburgh and then maybe a bit of luck.
*Disclaimer sums may be out somewhere but season not dead yet!