Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Pitfitter446 on Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:29 am

10 hours till kick off ish, am excited, nervous, and hopeful, I want to see the Ulster fans leaving with 15 minutes to go, heads down and scarfs trailing, let’s give Fordy a hell of a send off.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby TheSmidge on Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:55 am

Tichtheid wrote:
TheSmidge wrote:
Tichtheid wrote:
Two wins for us and we should secure third place but we must not only win on Friday, we must win by 8 points.



I think that as long as we win, regardless of margin, that will be enough to go above them due to our current advantage in points difference (+41 vs -6 at present). I don't see them overcoming that differential in the next two games.

If they get two BPs, for a narrow 4-try defeat, then I would consider it unlikely that we wouldn't have also got a try BP and so both would be on 56 going into the final weekend and, again, our points difference would give us an advantage. Then, we would simply need to match their result to guarantee at least 3rd.

If Benetton only got 4, and we got 5, then we would be 2nd if they don't win by 3 more than we do. They are, however, virtually guaranteed 5 against Zebre in the last game so we would need to match that and, probably, thump the Warriors as well.



I was taking into account the possibility of Ulster getting the full five points in a thrashing of Leinster, as unlikely as that sounds.



It is likely if Leinster field a weakened team. I can understand them doing so last week, but I think it is problematic in the next two league games, as they will be in danger of being undercooked going into the CC SF and then the play-offs. If so, their first XV will have had one game since the end of 6Ns before the SF and only two in more than two months if they don't make the CC final. As good as they are, that's a tough one to manage. We'll find out what they are doing this weekend shortly.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby TheSmidge on Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:12 pm

Leinster's team for tomorrow, a bit of a mixture but by no means a weakened team:

15. Rob Kearney (206)
14. Jordan Larmour (34)
13. Joe Tomane (11)
12. Robbie Henshaw (32)
11. Dave Kearney (133)
10. Ross Byrne (66)
9. Jamison Gibson-Park (69)
1. Ed Byrne (41)
2. James Tracy (89)
3. Michael Bent (120)
4. Devin Toner (227)
5. Jack Dunne (4)
6. Josh Murphy (19)
7. Seán O’Brien (123) CAPTAIN
8. Caelan Doris (13)

16. Seán Cronin (168)
17. Cian Healy (203)
18. Tadhg Furlong (97)
19. Will Connors (3)
20. Max Deegan (40)
21. Hugh O’Sullivan (12)
22. Ciarán Frawley (12)
23. Adam Byrne (51)


Two implications:

1. Increases the chances of Glasgow needing to win next week, unless they get at least losing BP(s) and Munster lose without BP(s) to Benetton.

2. Increases the chances of them facing Ulster with a weaker team, particularly if they win the CC SF as well.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Tichtheid on Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:26 pm

TheSmidge wrote:
2. Increases the chances of them facing Ulster with a weaker team, particularly if they win the CC SF as well.



Perhaps it's wishful thinking on my part, but I do fancy Toulouse to turn Leinster over in Dublin, they did a magnificent job on Racing in Paris the other week and are very strong right across the board.

Richie Gray is back close to his best, too.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby dolf_lundgren on Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:32 pm

Looks like a half and half team, maybe thinking of playing the other half next week?

Toner, Henshaw and Kearney haven't played much recently.

Either way they wont be full strength vs Ulster.

I think Glasgow will win this game though, then they might think about resting next week, but that is harder to do when at home after losing to us twice already.

We just need to win then see what happens, nothing more we can do. Would be gutting to miss out on play offs.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby TheSmidge on Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:36 pm

dolf_lundgren wrote:Looks like a half and half team, maybe thinking of playing the other half next week?

Toner, Henshaw and Kearney haven't played much recently.

Either way they wont be full strength vs Ulster.

I think Glasgow will win this game though, then they might think about resting next week, but that is harder to do when at home after losing to us twice already.

We just need to win then see what happens, nothing more we can do. Would be gutting to miss out on play offs.


If we do miss out, then we are not short of games to look back and pinpoint what went wrong. Losing to Ulster, Cardiff and Zebre from winning positions are the ones that come immediately to mind.

As you say, all we can do is beat what is in front of us in the next few weeks and wait to see what happens elsewhere.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby liveinhope on Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:59 pm

Assuming Benetton beat Zebre our only chance of Heineken qualification is via the 4th plasce play-off.
Given we only have a 19 point points difference advantage currently over Scarlets almost certain that if they get BP wins in their last two fixtures that they will easily catch this up.In turn this makes it highly likely that a win without a BP against Glasgow would not be enough and a 5 point BP win will be required to overtake them. (and even then I believe mathematically certain it will leave us playing away in the 4th place play-off).
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby liveinhope on Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:11 pm

Very good win by Glasgow at Leinster-once again seemed to be playing a different sport to that on show from Edinburgh last night (which of course probably means we'll beat them in a fortnight!)
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby BruceLee on Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:14 pm

liveinhope wrote:Very good win by Glasgow at Leinster-once again seemed to be playing a different sport to that on show from Edinburgh last night (which of course probably means we'll beat them in a fortnight!)

I really doubt it though, they are a team , at the moment we are a group of headless chickens,bar a few players.It was really just a matter of time before the wheels fell off ie when the forwards lost dominance over the opponents,really cant see Glasgow not wanting to pay us back for the previous two encounters with us; in fact we would have to win now with a bonus point at Scotstoun,but then pigs might fly!
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby gunner_graham on Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:19 pm

BruceLee wrote:
liveinhope wrote:Very good win by Glasgow at Leinster-once again seemed to be playing a different sport to that on show from Edinburgh last night (which of course probably means we'll beat them in a fortnight!)

I really doubt it though, they are a team , at the moment we are a group of headless chickens,bar a few players.It was really just a matter of time before the wheels fell off ie when the forwards lost dominance over the opponents,really cant see Glasgow not wanting to pay us back for the previous two encounters with us; in fact we would have to win now with a bonus point at Scotstoun,but then pigs might fly!


I realise it really is a massive clutch, but we can beat them at Scotstoun. We've got two weeks to get our head in the right place and this is Cocker's time to get the team up for it. Four tries though will be pretty difficult. We only scored 3 in the previous two fixtures and Agent Hastings gifted two of those. It's baffling how we bullied the Glasgow pack in both those games yet we couldn't cope with an Ulster scrum that they minced. Strange old game.
Fingers crossed and prayers to whatever deity you worship. You never know.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby disco on Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:52 pm

Final round permutations for Edinburgh and their remaining chances of making the playoffs. Hard to see both Benetton and Scarlets failing to win in Round 21 so here's a simplified version excluding those results:

EDI simple.PNG
EDI simple.PNG (20.86 KiB) Viewed 8658 times
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby disco on Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:53 pm

For the completists out there here are all 28 ways (summarised where possible) that Edinburgh can make the playoffs this Saturday:

EDI complex table.PNG
EDI complex table.PNG (14.85 KiB) Viewed 8658 times


EDI complex permutations.PNG
EDI complex permutations.PNG (19.91 KiB) Viewed 8658 times
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby disco on Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:53 pm

And if we assume that Benetton and their match points and points difference advantage are uncatchable then what do Edinburgh need in a straight up fight with Scarlets for 4th place and the final Champions Cup playoff spot?

EDI champ cup playoff.PNG
EDI champ cup playoff.PNG (25.38 KiB) Viewed 8657 times
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Friday Knight Lights on Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:14 am

BruceLee wrote:
liveinhope wrote:Very good win by Glasgow at Leinster-once again seemed to be playing a different sport to that on show from Edinburgh last night (which of course probably means we'll beat them in a fortnight!)

I really doubt it though, they are a team , at the moment we are a group of headless chickens,bar a few players.It was really just a matter of time before the wheels fell off ie when the forwards lost dominance over the opponents,really cant see Glasgow not wanting to pay us back for the previous two encounters with us; in fact we would have to win now with a bonus point at Scotstoun,but then pigs might fly!


The pack always go up a notch or two Vs Glasgow.

Big game for a lot of the backs as they're in most cases playing the Scotland shirt holder pre world cup.

I can't see it but expect an absolute belter.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby dolf_lundgren on Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:51 pm

Scarlets already have 3 tries at HT vs Drags.

First straw blowing away in the wind...
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