Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

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Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby The Feral Goat on Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:35 pm

Edinburgh

H – Leinster
A – Scarlets
H – Ulster
A – Glasgow

Scarlets

A – Cardiff
H – Edinburgh
H – Zebre
A – Dragons

Ulster

H – Kings
A – Glasgow
A – Edinburgh
H – Leinster

Benetton

A - Connacht
A - Leinster
H – Munster
A - Zebre

Where are the straws to grab at then…

Conference finished up really close last season, going down to the last day hopefully we can make it happen again this season.

We have the toughest run-in and simply have to win all 4 games. Hopefully we won’t need to rest many of our returning internationals and can hope that first match Leinster, with them comfortable at the top, will take the chance to do so ahead of their HC quarter final we don't have that luxury.

Game 1
Ulster we would expect to pick up a TBP v Kings so if we beat Leinster we would likely be 8 points adrift of them and say both Scarlets and Benetton lose away we would possible sneak into 4th above Scarlets and be 4 pts behind Benetton assuming a LBP for Scarlets but not Benetton (U54, B54, S46, E46)*

Game 2
Irrespective the next match away to Scarlets is looking to be make or break and the biggest game of the season although Ulster and Benetton could both easily lose away to Glasgow and Leinster a win for us would I think have us level with Benetton, 4 behind Ulster and 4 ahead of Scarlets. (U54, B50, S47, E50)*

Game 3
So onto the new biggest game of the season and a must win v Ulster at home to take us level on points with them assuming no LBP or TBP for either side. Scarlets are likely to pick a TBP win at home to Zebre and so move to within 2 of us and Ulster. Benetton a tough match at home v Munster who are likely to be fighting Glasgow for that top spot. (U54, B50, S52, E54)*

Game 4
All leading to one horrifically nervous final day that I don’t even want to think about!

So it is possible we could still make playoffs and qualify for the CC. Not sure I can see us win all 4 particularly away to Scarlets, nor am I convinced Benetton are not going to take another scalp before the final day of the season but all is not lost yet. First and foremost it needs 4 massive performances from Edinburgh and then maybe a bit of luck.

*Disclaimer sums may be out somewhere but season not dead yet!
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby liveinhope on Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:48 pm

Do you not think some internationalists will be rested after the 6N to be fresher for the Munster QF? And if we were to win that how will it impact on selection before/after a Heineken SF?
Could be some difficult calls for Cockerill especially where he doesn't have much faith in the back up players.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby biffer on Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:10 pm

If things were to go our way, then it's not ridiculous for both Benneton and Ulster to only get one win from those four games. Trouble is the same could be said for us.

One other potential thing - the Challenge Cup qfs might end up having all teams who are going to qualify for the Champions Cup through their own leagues for next season - Clermont, La Rochelle, Quins, Saints, Connacht all look likely to qualify. Which would mean that the final Champs Cup place would go to the league of the winner of the final in Newcastle. Might find ourselves cheering on Leinster that day if we overtake Scarlets.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Tichtheid on Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:19 pm

Even if we do rest players for the Leinster game I think we might get Toolis back, maybe WP - him or Bergs. Barclay is targeting this match and we should have at least one of Watson, Ritchie or Bradbury available. I have no idea about Mata but there was no indication that his was a serious injury

I also think we'll get Graham and hopefully Kinghorn, it's nearly three weeks away and vdM's injury was a cut iirc so he should be fit, also Matt Scott and Mark Bennett should be available.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby The Feral Goat on Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:21 pm

liveinhope wrote:Do you not think some internationalists will be rested after the 6N to be fresher for the Munster QF? And if we were to win that how will it impact on selection before/after a Heineken SF?
Could be some difficult calls for Cockerill especially where he doesn't have much faith in the back up players.


McInally Ritchie and the other front line internationals effectively had a rest week this week with no game time. I think Cockerill will need to perhaps rest one or two at a time but this will hopefully be easier to do with likes of Barclay due back and hopefully maybe Hamilton in the back row, I think Berghan may not play for Scotland with Fagerson (Z) back (Townsend likes him) so should be available as well. McInally and Gilchrist are the two for me we really miss and would ideally not like to see them rested at the same time.

If results go our way on the weekend of 22nd I think Cockerill will have a big decision around the team for the QF and what the priority should be thereafter. I think our strongest team has a great chance of winning the QF but i don't think we have the strength and depth to sustain a challenge to climb back up the league and be competitive in a CC semi (likely to be away to Sarries i think).
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Wottie on Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:00 pm

I think that with a single away win in the league this year (and that still in Scotland!), taking down even a struggling Scarlets outfit in Wales may be being optimistic. Add to that the impact of losing those last two games (when both were there for the taking) and suffering a first defeat at BTM for ages will have had mentally on the squad, and I think realistically as a target, we are looking at securing that 4th place playoff spot against Connacht or Cardiff for next season's Champions Cup. To be honest, if we get that from where we are now, I'll be happy.

..... oh and a European semi against the Weeg of course!!
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby germain on Tue Mar 05, 2019 4:05 am

Treviso and Ulster look out of reach already, as well as the third place. Both could still fail but I doubt they will.
Next round will be absolutly crucial. If Scarlets lose and if we win, then the fourth place could be up for grabs at Parc y scarlets.

For the players, even if we reach the CC's final, it will make 7 games in all. Expect the first team to play in each and all of the games (maybe Gilcho and McInally could bench against Leinster). Rotation time is over.

Edit : and now that SHC has left Scarlets, I have no fears anymore ! We can do it !
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby The Feral Goat on Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:10 pm

Unless ulster have a shocker this weekend could not have gone much better for us....alive in the playoff hunt for another week at least.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Pitfitter446 on Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:22 pm

Well the straw is a bit further in my hand, but still very slippy.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby biffer on Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:08 am

Two wins might do this for us. That would have us on 55, Benetton could be on the same if they lose to Munster and Leinster and get five against Zebre, Scarlets on the same if they get five against Zebre and Dragons and nowt v us. Ulster could be on 54 if we beat them, considering a tough run in with away to Glasgow and last game V Leinster.

In our hands though. If we win all three we're in the playoffs. That wasn't the case before last night.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Pitfitter446 on Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:26 am

There is a tiny chink of light at the end of the tunnel.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Crichton Gunner on Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:19 pm

Crucial away game vs Scarlets coming up. They appear to be on the wain as a side, but given our away record this season it's hard to be overly optimistic. At least there's still hope.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby gunner_graham on Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:28 pm

Seen this Scarlets game coming a while now. They're dreadful, but so is our away form. They rest next week, we don't. Straws are being clutched, but a HC semi is not to be sniffed at, especially now when it feels like qualification is so much tougher than the last time. We have to back it up by qualifying for next season's.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Tichtheid on Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:52 am

Massive weekend coming up, Ulster are in Glasgow, Benetton in Dublin and us at Scarlets.

I don’t think anyone gets a rest now, we have to put everything in to the next few weeks, it’s still in our own hands to make the big cup next year, but Glasgow and Leinster can really help us out.
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Re: Pro14 Run In - Straw clutching time

Postby Pitfitter446 on Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:07 pm

If we do our bit and win our own games we can’t complain about failures, any help from others is a bonus, I’d love some bonus.
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