The Run-In

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The Run-In

Postby TheSmidge on Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:01 am

I've updated my analysis of the run-in to see where we are on predictions for finishing positions, vis a vis the play-offs and ECC qualifications.

First, the good news. The simple fact remains the simple fact. Beat Ulster and Glasgow and we should make the top 4, get a home play-off QF and top the Scottish-Italian shield. The latter would be a certainty and the former also if its two BP victories. However, there is a risk that if we only got 4-pt wins and the Bulls got two BP wins (Glasgow H and Ospreys A) then we would slip behind them and Ulster into 5th. That would then probably mean a play-off QF away to Ulster. However, do our business in the way that we have shown we can this season and it looks like we would be hosting Munster in the QF, again, with an assumption that they lose to Leinster in the final round.

Second, what happens if we lose to Ulster? Because it is so tight in the table, this has quite a dramatic impact. On the assumption we can still beat Glasgow (and Glasgow also lose to the Bulls next week), we will fall to 7th, but still above Glasgow. This means we secure ECC qualification in topping the shield table. Our play-off QF would be away to Stormers or Ulster depending on how a couple o the final results fall.

Thirdly, what happens in the surely unlikely scenario that we lose to Glasgow but still beat Ulster? This will depend on BPs. A BP win vs Ulster and a LBP vs Glasgow would see us stay above them on points difference. In that scenario, we sneak into the ECC and, as above, probably face Stormers or Ulster away in the play-offs.

Fourthly, the doomsday scenario is losing both the last two games. In that situation, we need to watch Scarlets' results very closely (Ospreys A and Stormers H). If they win both, even without BPs, we need a minimum of two try/losing BPs to even make the play-offs. We have a significant points difference cushion so just need to match them on points. If they get two BP wins and we lose both games, then there is a very distinct possibility we miss out on the play-offs entirely.

But the simple fact is the simple fact. Play like we know we can. Control the game and cut out the silly mistakes. Our destiny is in our hands. I have every confidence we can make the play-offs, but only in 1 scenario do we get a home QF.
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Re: The Run-In

Postby TheSmidge on Sun Apr 24, 2022 3:08 pm

Just been highlighted on Twitter by Disco that Ospreys are theoretically still in contention for the play-offs and, therefore, theoretically a danger to us.

They are currently on 34 points with 3 games left (home to Scarlets, Dragons and Bulls). However, they need 3 BP wins and us not to get anything in our last two games, plus a very large points difference to overcome. In fact, Bulls will in all likelihood knock them out of contention on Friday by gaining a single point against Glasgow.

Then, we will be cheering FOR Ospreys against Scarlets on Saturday as a victory for the Os could then knock Scarlets out of contention if the latter don't get any BPs (they are currently on 43 pts compared to our 49).
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Re: The Run-In

Postby liveinhope on Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:06 am

Looks quite possible three SA sides will qualify for next season's ECC.Going forward they are only likely to get stronger (assuming no ongoing covid issues/isolation) and pehaps all four of their sides might make it through one year.I wonder if the other teams ,particularly in Scotland and Wales thought this through before and realised qualification was going to become so much more difficult-with 3/4 SA sides going through ,the inevitable Leinster and Munster could well be the only route is winning the respective Welsh and Scottish/Italian shields to get through.
Perhaps a negative viewpoint and well we'll just need to get better but puts things in perspective at a time Edinburgh's fortunes seem to be on the up-going to be difficult enough getting top 7 or finishing above Glasgow this seaon alone.
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Re: The Run-In

Postby robdinsdale on Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:48 am

liveinhope wrote:Looks quite possible three SA sides will qualify for next season's ECC.Going forward they are only likely to get stronger (assuming no ongoing covid issues/isolation) and pehaps all four of their sides might make it through one year.I wonder if the other teams ,particularly in Scotland and Wales thought this through before and realised qualification was going to become so much more difficult-with 3/4 SA sides going through ,the inevitable Leinster and Munster could well be the only route is winning the respective Welsh and Scottish/Italian shields to get through.
Perhaps a negative viewpoint and well we'll just need to get better but puts things in perspective at a time Edinburgh's fortunes seem to be on the up-going to be difficult enough getting top 7 or finishing above Glasgow this seaon alone.


It's not great for the Welsh when they only get 1 out of 4 but to be honest that is as much due to their teams being weak at the moment. For the SRU, getting 1 team in the Champions Cup and 1 in the Challenge Cup has been a pretty typical outcome since we stopped getting automatic qualification for both teams anyway. I think Edinburgh have only qualified twice since then?

It also probably becomes less of an issue if the URC becomes more commercially successful than the old Pro competitions, which I think has a strong chance of happening. Personally, I think it's much more attractive on a sporting level with the SA teams and the format is pretty sensible. There is a lot riding on the run in for quite a few teams, with only Leinster being comfortably clear.
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Re: The Run-In

Postby Croft_No.6 on Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:01 pm

I also have a vague recollection that the Shield winners getting the first 4 spots was only for this season and it would revert to top 8 from next, but may just have been a form of Dublin paranoia.
Irrespective, hoping for a win v Ulster to set up a finale v Glasgow the following week. Could really do with Glasgow beating the Bulls and for Scarlets or Ospreys squeezing into 8th (assuming both Scots teams can keep above them).
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Re: The Run-In

Postby The Feral Goat on Mon Apr 25, 2022 1:09 pm

Venter and DeBruin out for rest of season both had surgery.
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Re: The Run-In

Postby TheSmidge on Mon Apr 25, 2022 1:47 pm

Croft_No.6 wrote:I also have a vague recollection that the Shield winners getting the first 4 spots was only for this season and it would revert to top 8 from next, but may just have been a form of Dublin paranoia.
Irrespective, hoping for a win v Ulster to set up a finale v Glasgow the following week. Could really do with Glasgow beating the Bulls and for Scarlets or Ospreys squeezing into 8th (assuming both Scots teams can keep above them).


That would require the Bulls to lose their last 2 games (to Glasgow and Ospreys) and Scarlets to beat Ospreys and Stormers, causing the Bulls to fall to 9th and Scarlets rise up to 8th. That is on the assumption we win one of our last 2 games of course.

It is actually games won that will differentiate teams on equal points, before points difference. That means that 3 BP wins for the Os would be a real problem for us if we lost both games with any BPs. But we don't see that happening, right?!

Everything should be much clearer after next weekend and we will know what we need to do against Glasgow. Either win to secure a home play-off or win to secure a play-off at all.
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Re: The Run-In

Postby dolf_lundgren on Mon Apr 25, 2022 4:05 pm

m quite nervous about the next 2 games. Its not a huge stretch to say we could lose them both. In the 1872, things have flipped a little and it now seems to be Glasgow who raise their game and we wilt a bit.

Having said that it is interesting that we have a feel good factor and are petty happy, Glasgow fans are down in the dumps and they are still ahead of us. Despite playing much better rugby etc, in league terms we are still scrabbling around trying to make sure we finish top 7, we still need to take the next step to become proper challengers.
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Re: The Run-In

Postby The Feral Goat on Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:52 pm

dolf_lundgren wrote:m quite nervous about the next 2 games. Its not a huge stretch to say we could lose them both. In the 1872, things have flipped a little and it now seems to be Glasgow who raise their game and we wilt a bit.

Having said that it is interesting that we have a feel good factor and are petty happy, Glasgow fans are down in the dumps and they are still ahead of us. Despite playing much better rugby etc, in league terms we are still scrabbling around trying to make sure we finish top 7, we still need to take the next step to become proper challengers.


Yeah pretty nervous for the run in, although 2 home games to finish it really should be in our hands.

Don't doubt the teams physical ability to win on Saturday it is a real test of the top 2 inches and if they have the belief and composure to get a win under big pressure.

Standing room only left for the match, it is exactly this sort of game we have needed the DAM for in the past. Ulster normally have a decent support as well which should add to a great atmosphere.
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Re: The Run-In

Postby TheSmidge on Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:45 pm

The Feral Goat wrote:
dolf_lundgren wrote:m quite nervous about the next 2 games. Its not a huge stretch to say we could lose them both. In the 1872, things have flipped a little and it now seems to be Glasgow who raise their game and we wilt a bit.

Having said that it is interesting that we have a feel good factor and are petty happy, Glasgow fans are down in the dumps and they are still ahead of us. Despite playing much better rugby etc, in league terms we are still scrabbling around trying to make sure we finish top 7, we still need to take the next step to become proper challengers.


Yeah pretty nervous for the run in, although 2 home games to finish it really should be in our hands.

Don't doubt the teams physical ability to win on Saturday it is a real test of the top 2 inches and if they have the belief and composure to get a win under big pressure.

Standing room only left for the match, it is exactly this sort of game we have needed the DAM for in the past. Ulster normally have a decent support as well which should add to a great atmosphere.


The contrast should be to the play-off game in 2020 when we basically bottled it and lost the battle in the last 20 to hand them the game. The top 2 inches are key and I think we have come a long way, mainly by having a coach that allows the players to use their brains rather than demanding they play by rote.
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Re: The Run-In

Postby Pitfitter446 on Tue Apr 26, 2022 12:44 pm

The Feral Goat wrote:
dolf_lundgren wrote:
Standing room only left for the match, it is exactly this sort of game we have needed the DAM for in the past. Ulster normally have a decent support as well which should add to a great atmosphere.


Fortunately we seem to have a good regular home support so there may be minimal tickets available for Ulster fans, we just need to make more noise than them to keep them down?
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Re: The Run-In

Postby dolf_lundgren on Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:07 pm

a first minute Darcy try would certainly help with that too!
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Re: The Run-In

Postby TheSmidge on Tue Apr 26, 2022 5:02 pm

Reminded myself earlier of the full horror of the play-off game in 2020.

We weren't behind in the game until the 81st minute. In fact, we led until the 75th minute and were ahead by at least a converted score for 27 minutes of the 2nd half. It was a complete failure of coaching and leadership that we lost that game.

I believe we have come a long way in 18 months and this game will show how far. I have confidence (but also a teeny little bit of fear). Ulster have not been pulling up trees in recent weeks but they will be smarting from being bullied last time out by Munster. It is set up to be a belter, for the neutral at least.
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Re: The Run-In

Postby dolf_lundgren on Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:00 pm

I think Schoeman is going to be critical to our run in, he is the standout where the deputy is a big step down (No offence ot Harrison Courtney, who is doing fine, but wasn't expected to be in the 23 at this stage).

Im not sure how the protocols will work, but we will need Schoee to play at least 60 mins of every game from here I think. Looking back it looks like he has played 4 in row, but wasnt in the squad for 5 gams prior to that, so maybe there will be some leeway. Surely the protocols can be stretched in knock out rugby and were squads are depleted.

Would be really good to see Kinghorn vs Lowry at 10, not sure Ulster will go with that again though.
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Re: The Run-In

Postby liveinhope on Thu Apr 28, 2022 12:19 pm

Any news on the Sykes disciplinary hearing after last weekend's red card? Seems late in the week for this not to have been dealt with surely-usually a Tuesday or Wednesday evening.
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