Connacht v Edinburgh

[Castlecannon]

Shiel a mismanaged talent perhaps but certainly earned his contract extension with that stunning match winning cameo . Had he not scored Edinburgh were in trouble and potentially dead and buried for the playoffs . Hamish Watson too made a difference both in attack and defence and more than justified his contract extension .

Everitt appears to enjoy a good relationship with his players and seems to be more on top of his brief at last after last season being all over the place across leadership , gameplan and with a tendency to deliver painful , cliche riddled post match interviews. Overall team can be proud of their resilient defence and opportunism in attack. All to play for now which is great.

[Pitfitter1105]

That try by Shiell has been "brewing" for years.One of the most under rated players ever.He's stuck in for about.Well done Charlie,thank goodness my neighbours were only holiday as we raised the roof during yourv 75 metre .

Neighbours asked this morning what we were watching last night, and “who’s Charlie?l we still had doors and windows open whilst they were still sat outside wi a beer.
One word explanation needed ‘Rugby’.

[Wottie]

I still don't understand why Charlie Shiel doesn't seem to be rated by the coaches. My guess is that he does stuff based on what's in front of him instead of sticking to the mindless "bash, bash, box kick" plan.

There was rumours around the time Price's move to Montpelier 1st started that we were going to be signing a Saffer scrum half for next season. Doesn't look like that is happening now and we will go into next season with Vellacot, Sheil and Conor McAlpine as the 9's. That will give Charlie some much needed game time and a season when he can breakthrough. It's long overdue and he was shafted when Price came across the M8. Ben and Charlie are more running orientated scrum halfs which is good and hopefully points to how we will set up to play next season.

[Wottie]

Looks like a win next Friday will see us off to Pretoria to play The Bulls. Cardiff can jump above us with a win in Capetown next week, and Scarlets look like they could also jump above us with a win and either one or two bonus points from their two remaining games, depending on whether we get a 4 or 5 pointer. There is therefore a scenario if Cardiff and Wales knock it out of the park in SA where we still finish 9th but unlikely. All probability is Bulls away (or Leinster away if either one of Cardiff or Scarlets can get results to jump above us). I'd imagine the boys would rather just got to Dublin?

Not a good start, Scarlets with a BP win away to Lions.
Right so we know we need to win against Ulster so let's assume we do that. 6th, 7th and 8th spot are being contested by 5 teams.
One of Munster of Benetton will finish below us unless they draw which is complicated and I'll ignore due to probability. The winner takes a spot.
If Cardiff lose then we get a top 8 spot in either 7th or 8th depending on Scarlets result. We will finish on 48 points with a win and 49 with a BP win. Scarlets are already on 48 points with more wins, so if we don't get BP win we can't finish above them and if they get a losing BP, our BP win v Ulster is not enough to finish above them.

In summary, a Cardiff Win and Scarlets losing bonus point and we are Fooked and will finish 9th.
A Cardiff Win means we need a BP win and Scarlets to get nothing from game v Sharks for us to finish in 8th.
If Cardiff lose, will finish in 8th unless we get a BP win and Scarlets get nothing in which case, we will finish 7th ahead of Scarlets in 8th.

Not ideal, we could really have done with Scarlets losing at Lions.

Ps. There is actually a scenario where we get Glasgow in playoff. Cardiff Lose at Stormers, Scarlets lose at Sharks without a BP, We get a BP win and Munster and Benetton draw. Money spinner at Hampden? We could beat Glasgow the way they are playing just now.

[liveinhope]

Great analysis. What's worrying is that we are entirely at the mercy of the two Welsh teams. Stormers don't have much incentive against Cardiff as thry are bound to finish 5th or 6th which either way means an away match likely against Bulls or Sharks. Scarlets play the Sharks who have suddenly been hit by a raft of injuries so their chances now bouyed by today's win mean they only need one BP.Entirely possible they could score four tries in a high scoring match even if they don't threaten winning.
Going to be a pretty nervous weekend!